APPEA

Australia's numbers still add up

ONE cargo of liquefied natural gas is not a trend. However, as <i>Slugcatcher</i> looks back at a week dominated by a blizzard of words from the APPEA conference in Adelaide, it was a dollar figure attached to an LNG shipment that was the real news.

In Tokyo, according to the Platts commodity-price reference service, a shipment of LNG changed hands at a near-record $US18 per million British thermal units.

By the time you read this there might even have been a cargo traded above the 2008 all-time record of $20/MMbtu.

What makes last week's sharply higher price for a spot, or short-term, cargo of LNG particularly interesting is that it was a deal struck at a time when some of the world's oil and gas industry leaders were telling a different story in Adelaide.

According to people such as Exxon Mobil Asia Pacific marketing head Emma Cochrane, Santos' David Knox, BHP Billiton's Mike Yeager, Woodside chief executive Peter Coleman and Total boss Christophe de Margerie, the outlook for Australia's fast-growing LNG industry is not as bright as some outsiders might think.

The common theme was that Australia's high cost, high taxing, and uncertain regulatory environment was the equivalent of lead in the saddle of the LNG industry.

"Right now, the WA [gas] province in general is very, very, expensive," Yeager said. "We want to be aggressive but cost is the real difficult thing and we're having a battle on a number of fronts."

Cochrane focused on changing government policies, singling out the carbon tax for special mention.

"I note with some concern recent policy drifts, which, taken together, add significant cost to our industry and potentially lessen incentives for long-term investment," she said.

Knox said the government needed to recognise its capacity to facilitate investment, as well as a capacity to impede it, and Coleman warned about rushing LNG developments in a simple pursuit of size.

Total's de Margerie doubted Australia could handle a dramatic expansion in LNG production but confirmed his interest in expanding Total's footprint in Australia's oil and gas sector.

Set against that barrage of criticism for Australia's regulatory and tax environment were factors separate from the temporary hothouse environment of the APPEA conference that gives company executives an opportunity to criticise government.

The first factor was the amusing way so many chief executives and corporate heavyweights appeared to be singing from the same hymn sheet. It was almost as if the APPEA executive committee had issued a set of instructions on how to sell the message to the senior government minister at the event, Resources Minister Martin Ferguson.

It is entirely possible that the view of the oil and gas industry is synchronised around a theme of costs and tax.

However, as The Slug listened to speaker after speaker say virtually the same thing he was reminded of an early APPEA trick of dragging out a graph showing Australia's declining rate of oil and gas production - which made minimal allowance for discovery.

That declining-production sales pitch, also aimed at a government audience in the hope of winning concessions, has been dropped because discovery, particularly offshore gas, has neutralised the argument.

Is it possible, a casual observer might ask, that the same game is being played today by the oil and gas industry. It is complaining about costs and regulation while deftly sidestepping the evidence of sharply higher spot-cargo LNG prices, soaring demand in Japan, and the near-perfect location of Australia to meet Asian LNG demand.

On price, that $US18/MMbtu obtained for a single LNG cargo is a reminder that Japan is desperate for gas in the wake of mothballing its nuclear reactor fleet - and that the increased demand will not fade overnight.

Australia might be high cost and have a thoroughly lousy government. However, it also has immense advantages such as not being in the Middle East and not subject to unexpected outages.

That is something Total's de Margerie knows a lot about, but probably forgot to mention - an oversight The Slug will correct for him.

At the same time the Total boss was speaking in Adelaide, a pipeline to his company's 39.6%-owned Yemen LNG project was blown up by terrorists. That has effectively ensured the plant will not be quickly brought back into production after a similar attack in April.

There is no need to spell out precisely the difference between investing in Australian LNG and LNG projects in the Middle East, Africa, or other dodgy parts of the world.

It is enough to repeat "mother's" warning about buying good shoes. They last the distance and need repairing less often.

Costly, yes. Good value, undoubtedly - much like Australia's LNG opportunities.

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