DRILLING

Schlumberger pushes oil recovery to 2017

FEARS of reduced growth in Chinese demand and expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of additional Iranian supply has forced oilfields services giant Schlumberger's CEO Paal Kibsgaard to push out his expectations for a recovery in crude prices from the end of this year to 2017.

Schlumberger pushes oil recovery to 2017

While Kibsgaard said in July that a recovery could start by the end of this year, he told analysts on Friday that the situation has worsened, as his company reported a 49% drop in third-quarter profit as the business environment deteriorated further.

Schlumberger has taken the opportunity to increase its market share by announcing a takeover of fellow oilfield services major Cameron, in the face of a looming competitive threat in a combined Halliburton and Baker Hughes.

"As we enter the last quarter of the year, the oil market is still weighed down by fears of reduced growth in Chinese demand and the expectations regarding the timing and magnitude of additional Iranian supply," Kibsgaard said.

"However, the fundamental balance of supply and demand continues to tighten, driven by both solid global macroeconomic growth and by weakening supply as the dramatic cuts in exploration and production investments are starting to take effect.

"We expect this trend to continue as the oil market further recognises the magnitude of the industry's annual production replacement challenge."

However, for oilfield services, Kibsgaard said the market outlook for coming quarters looks increasingly challenging with activity expected to be reduced further, as lack of available cash flow exhausts capital spending for a number of Schlumberger's customers, leading them to take a conservative view on 2016 exploration and production spending in spite of any gradual improvement in oil prices.

The northern hemisphere winter season will also have the normal impact on activity in the fourth quarter, which this year is unlikely to be offset by the usual year-end sales of software, products and multi-client licenses, Kibsgaard said.

"In light of conservative customer budgets for next year, we are therefore entering another period during which we will continually adjust resources in line with activity, as the recovery now appears to be delayed," he said.

"We remain focused on managing our cost base, and are further accelerating our transformation program to help offset the impact of lower service pricing.

"As we navigate the current commercial landscape, we still look to strike a balance between market share and operating margins, while continuing to seek opportunities to extend our portfolio through targeted mergers and acquisitions, such as our transaction with Cameron, where integration planning is already well advanced."

Schlumberger's year-on-year revenue fell by 34% in North America and 18% internationally during the first nine months of 2015.

In spite of the size of these declines, Kibsgaard said Schlumberger's decremental operating margins over the same period have been limited to 34% in North America, and 23% internationally - figures which continue to be "substantially better" than those it delivered in the 2009 downturn.

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