The complexities of the issues surrounding public benefit and dominance in this country's small energy industry have already pushed out the date of the commission's final determination from this Thursday to the middle of this month or even later.

Some commentators have told EnergyReview.Net the Pohokura partners - Shell New Zealand, Todd Energy and OMV Petroleum - may have offered to sell sufficient quantities of Pohokura gas to the government to ensure it can meet its obligations to its downstream gas users until 2009, given that current Maui reserves may be all but extinguished by 2006.

Other commentators say the Pohokura partners may want the government out of the equation altogether so they can "honour" any supply obligations using non-Maui gas at non-Maui contract prices.

The spark which ignited this intriguing situation was the devastating Netherland Sewell and Associates International report, which early this year concluded there were only approximately 370 Petajoules of "economically recoverable" gas left in the dwindling offshore Taranaki field and that major user Methanex had already used virtually all its entitlements.

It is known that the government-proposed solution to reduce offtakes is not in the interests of the Maui partners, who happen to be the Pohokura partners, nor of the downstream users. Lower offtakes would reduce the amount of condensate and oil that can be extracted, while also leaving downstream users such as Contact Energy and NGC having to cobble together parcels of extra gas from other fields to "make up" their original Maui entitlements.

Any Pohokura-for-Maui gas deal would also allow the Maui partners to explore for the 200PJ of undeveloped gas they believe can still be recovered from within the licence and sell that additional (Maui) gas at Pohokura gas prices of $NZ4.50-5.50 a gigajoule, as this new gas would be deemed outside the economically recoverable reserves of the Maui contract.

However, it is not known exactly how such a deal would work, considering the different equities the partners have in the two permits. OMV holds a 10% stake in Maui, Todd a 6% interest and Shell 84% while Shell holds a 48% interest in Pohokura. Todd and OMV are believed to be still finalising a deal which will see Todd take an extra 9.8% interest in PEP 38459, leaving both companies with 26% stakes.

The commission is likely to impose stringent conditions on the partners, including setting a strict timeframe for joint marketing, to limit their joint or individual market powers - as it did two years ago when Shell had to twice appease the commission with divestment promises before being allowed to buy Fletcher Challenge Energy.