Well, as you will discover the Rangoon riots are the latest twist in the tale of the petroleum price which is fast becoming the world’s dominant economic consideration, and a potential trigger for even more unpleasant events.
The problem confronting the oppressed citizens of Rangoon, and elsewhere in Myanmar, is the rising cost of living, and the primary cause of the higher prices (which have become life-threatening) is the price of oil.
Chants heard by Buddhist monks leading protests in Rangoon included: “We want reductions in commodity prices, we want a roll back of fuel prices, release arrested monks”.
Leaving the monks to one side, it is the price of simply surviving from day to day which is causing the most aggravation in Myanmar – and a lot of other poor countries which are being forced to pay the same petroleum price as rich countries.
Worse still, the high petroleum price is causing the wholesale migration of cereal and other food crops into the fuel-making business. The result is that not only are people in some countries unable to afford to run their cars, but they can’t even afford to buy breakfast.
It doesn’t take Slugcatcher to say this is not a healthy situation.
But, it is The Slug who suggests the next victims in this trail of trouble will not be the Arab States, which dictate oil production rates, but western oil companies that are the contact point between oppressed consumers and producers.
This next forecast event is blaming oil companies. This is, of course, unfair. But who said life was fair?
Once you recognise the sequence of events leading to where we are today (and where we’re going) and you will see oil really is entering a sea of trouble, and it threatens to get nasty, quickly, especially if the oil price tops the $US100 a barrel mark as appears to be inevitable.
That’s why the Rangoon riots should be seen as the first taste of what’s to come.
The question which ought to be occupying the planners at big western oil companies is how to combat the inevitable trouble heading their way.
Do they plead with government to explain to the man in the street that high food and fuel prices are not the fault of the companies?
Or do they blame the Arabs now?
Slugcatcher, being the complete politically incorrect person that he is, says blame the Arabs – and blame them loudly and often – because to not do so could make the situation a lot worse for western oil companies.
Management in “Big Oil” will, of course, argue it’s not wise to criticise the governments of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and elsewhere. After all, these are the governments which supply the oil which they refine and then sell to people in Rangoon and elsewhere.
But if the Arabs are allowed to simply get away with their policy of artificially capping oil production, enjoying the benefits of the high price, and leaving the western oil companies to cop the blame then the situation can only get worse.
Slugcatcher knows this is a complex equation of conflicting politics and economics.
But the seeds of trouble are being sown in places like Myanmar, and do not be surprised if they quickly spread to other potential flash spots such as Pakistan and Indonesia where it will be even easier to blame western oil companies and ignore OPEC’s role in forcing up food and fuel prices.
At first glance, $US100 per barrel oil might seem like paradise to petroleum companies. But Slugcatcher reckons it might turn out to be the exact opposite.
