While counting in the Senate has a long way to run, it seems likely that the Greens will increase their numbers, and possibly even emerge with sufficient power to dictate events, and the passage of legislation.
What that essentially means is that most new laws proposed by the Kevin Rudd Government will be passed seamlessly – assuming the defeated conservative parties do not kick up too much of a fuss should they still hold control.
But at the fringes of the law-making process, where the deals are done in what were once smoke-filled rooms, the Greens will be extracting a price for their complicity.
This is where the fun starts for the fossil fuels industry, and that means oil, gas and coal.
Greens hate fossil fuels. If they could find a way they would shut down every oil field and coal mine tomorrow and have us all cycle to work, run pedal-powered computers, and boil in un-air-conditioned offices in summer – and freeze our backsides off in winter.
Rudd, thankfully, seems to be a little more sensible than his green friends. He comes from a resources state, and understands the resources sector is a major employer, as well as a major source of tax revenue.
But understanding only goes so far, and when it comes to changing the law to suit his political agenda that’s when he will come face to face with the demands of the Greens, and when deals will be done – especially over matters related to the environment.
The Slug, who has watched Canberra governments come and go over many decades, has seen the way the system works.
Picture this scenario. Rudd wants new industrial relations laws which kill the hated Australian Workplace Agreements. The Greens, in principle, agree. AWAs have to go.
But that’s when they make their first request. In exchange for voting out AWAs in the Senate they ask for a cut in coal production, or oil production, so Australia can meet its new Kyoto Agreement greenhouse gas target.
Managing his way through that little trap will be a test for Rudd, and while he is likely to be up to the job there is no doubt that the fossil fuel industry will get bruised on the way through.
Coal will be the number one target of the Greens. Oil and gas will be number two.
The challenge for the petroleum industry is to convince the Government (and the Greens) that oil and gas are not products we can abandon without killing the economy.
Gas, in particular, has a well proven role in the fight against global warming – and that might be a reason why the early signs from the stock market are that a Rudd Government is not feared.
When The Slugtook his first look at the market this morning he was half-expecting the board to be covered in red ink. Investors, traditionally, do not like left-of-centre governments.
What a pleasant surprise then to see that most prices were up. Perhaps that was a reaction to the oil price sitting around $US98 a barrel, plus a strong finish in New York last Friday.
But, Woodside adding more than $1 was a welcome pointer, as was Santos, up 13c in the first hour – and what appeared to be strong rises across the rest of the resources sector.
The test of this good news will come when new legislation reaches Parliament – that’s when we’ll discover “how green is my government”.
