NEWS ARCHIVE

Shell-BG twist to LNG storm

CONSULTANCY Gaffney, Cline & Associates believes the Shell-BG deal could be the last ingredient f...

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GCA said the transaction created the largest concentration of LNG in terms of both equity production and traded volumes, with most of it based around the emerging Singapore trading hub.

"It is also occurring at a time when oil equivalent pricing is simply insufficient to provide enough economic certainty for most Pacific Basin LNG greenfield projects to receive an affirmative final investment decision, leaving many projects sitting on the sidelines," GCA said.

"Furthermore, the deal coincides with a wave of innovations such as bulk-breaking, miniaturisation, modularisation and floating concepts which are all gathering momentum as never before.

"Meanwhile, with Japanese gas and power unbundling gathering pace for the 2016 market opening, many LNG buyers are re-evaluating their gas procurement strategies, and wondering whether the traditional contracting approaches of the past are still valid, in this new era."

While GCA sees all the signs of a bumpy ride ahead, it identified three key areas of concern on the horizon: "First, will we see the more rapid emergence of an Asia-Pacific hub price as an acceptable basis for project finance?

"In the LNG space, lenders have accepted oil price risk for many decades now, and are typically uneasy about change. The same concerns were raised when market transformation in the UK led to the demise of oil based long term contracts, but lenders have come to accept gas price risk. With sufficient volume and liquidity, why not for Asia?"

GCA's second focus was on the prospect of whether "gas on a gas index" will mitigate some of the market risk faced by competing Japanese utilities.

"We are rapidly entering a phase where poor gas procurement decisions will lead to market loss and take or pay liabilities, one of the traps that the old British Gas plc fell into, and a reason behind the BG spin off in the first place," the consultancy said.

GCA took in the impacts of floating LNG and floating storage and regasification units into account with its last area of concern:

"Third, with diversification of LNG supply, based on multi-billion dollar world class projects at one end of the spectrum, and small scale FLNG/FSRU niche players at the other, brought together by substantial traders and aggregators we are rapidly entering a world where supply risk stemming from upstream issues or operational shipping problems becomes largely consigned to history, with buyers and sellers able to rely on a deep and liquid regional market for LNG."

GCA said it promised to monitor events carefully and assist its clients as new strategies came together.

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