NEWS ARCHIVE

WoodMac's gloomy forecast

WITH third quarterly reports now out for most of the world's biggest oilers researchers from Wood Mackenzie's corporate upstream research team have sifted through the entrails and ashes to conduct some good old fashioned soothsaying on what 2016 might hold, and the prognosis isn't good.

The stand out themes that Wood Mackenzie notes include weak financial performance in the face of surging production levels, deep cost cutting; and tighter allocation of limited capital, and that all bodes poorly for next year.

"The crash in oil prices this year is having a transformative impact on the industry. The majors are now making real progress in reshaping their investment strategies for a sustained period of low prices," Woodmac head of corporate upstream analysis Tom Ellacott said.

In terms of earnings, they were weak for the fourth quarter in succession, the effect of a 50% year-on-year fall in oil prices accentuated by over US$9 billion of impairments.

The upstream sector is being underpinned by support from downstream sectors like refining, which is great if you have an integrated business model, but most companies don't, and those are exactly the sorts of companies that are hoping to benefit from the asset sale shakeout from the majors.

Unfortunately, with capital markets weak, those companies securing projects may lack the cash to take advantage of a once-in-a-generation firesale and low, low rig rates.

Production growth remains strong - stubbornly strong if you blame the glut for oil's low prices - but that is just the last surge of the last investment cycle.

Higher cost production will gradually be shut in, flattening and then reducing output, and in theory allowing demand to catch up to supply, and exceed it, blowing open the doors for the next investment decide.

"Total was the top performer, delivering double digit production growth. Eni, Statoil and Shell also had strong quarters," Ellacott said.

"But longer-term growth prospects are starting to suffer from lower investment Chevron and Total have now downgraded their 2017 production targets and longer-term growth trajectories will be flatter as companies focus on value not volume."

There's no surprise Eni, Statoil, Shell and Total all have refining arms.

In terms of cost cutting, the red is clear in the ledgers and unemployment queues are still growing - Shell alone has shed some 7000 workers this year and it is no orphan.

Wood Group founder Ian Wood recently said that at around $US55/bbl up to half of the North Sea oil fields are no longer viable.

Already more than 60,000 jobs in and around the North Sea have been lost, and the pain looks set to continue into 2016.

That tallies with Wood Mackenzie's prediction that the deep cost cutting will continue into 2016, as the majors and juniors strap themselves in for the lower portion of the ‘lower for longer' rollercoaster.

Chevron's revised capex projection for 2016-17 could be up to $US17 billion lower than the guidance the supermajor gave earlier in the year.

Spending levels in 2017 could be down by around 30% versus guidance prior to the oil price crash as more projects are deferred and underlying costs continue to fall.

"BP provided a barometer of how companies are adjusting planning assumptions in the new world of lower prices, announcing that it is using a mid-teen hurdle rate for major greenfield projects at an oil price of $60/bbl," Ellacott said

"We expect other majors to be screening pre-FID projects under similar hurdle rates," Ellacott said.

Last month, Wood Mackenzie estimated the petroleum industry can't make money on $1.5 trillion in pending investments on conventional and North American shale drilling projects with $50 oil now that there is an oversupply of around 2.5 million barrels of oil per day in the market

There have already been some 50 large projects put on ice in the US as uneconomic.

In the longer term, considerably more projects will be jeopardised by the low prices, with oilfield services contractors which provide thousands of workers and equipment, such as drilling materials, forecasted to be hit hardest.

The loss of skilled workers through redundancies will be particularly painful for the sector according to the report, as they will be considerably more difficult to attract back from other sectors once prices stabilise again.

In the Abu Dhabi region, up to $200 billion in planned projects by petrochemical companies have been cancelled. Larger players like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates can weather lower prices for some time due to large capital reserves, however, nations like Bahrain and Oman lack buffers and may find themselves in financial strife.

South American and African oil producing countries, like Venezuela and Nigeria, too face considerable headwind in balancing their budgets as expected incomes decrease.

At its best, Wood Mackenzie believes prices will start a recovery in 2017, likely pushing costs toward levels before the oil price slump.

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