OIL

Oil prices heading south over economic uncertainty

In last week's AER, we reported oil prices were heading north thanks to a declining US inventory and increasing winter demand for fuel from Europe. Now we are pleased to report oil prices are heading south, due in part to continuing concern over the global economy. On Friday, the oil market closed US70c down to $US19.68 a barrel. This put the crude oil market 10 per cent lower over the past week, based on West Texas Intermediate.

The oil market will be closely following the actions of OPEC and non-OPEC members to see whether they will implement their proposed production cuts. OPEC members have agreed to reduce production by 1.5 million barrels of oil per day (bopd) on January 1 with non-OPEC members such as Norway, Russia and Mexico pledging cuts of almost 500,000 bopd.

The Russians gave the market the jitters after news it had lifted restrictions on fuel exports. According to analysts, without the cooperation of Russia, the price of oil could fall to its November low of $US16.70 bbl.

The oil market will be looking to improved economic conditions in the US to help lift prices. The latest figures from the OECD show US economic indicators rising along with business and consumer confidence. Industrial production, a primary driver of demand for commodities such as oil, rose in December, the first month-on-month rise for the year.

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