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The curious case of Russia at APPEA

THERE were questions at last week’s APPEA conference, not just about the energy transition, but also why one of Australia’s emerging LNG rivals was addressing a private breakfast on day two of the event.

Balance and pragmatism, or free market cronyism

Balance and pragmatism, or free market cronyism

This was, after all, an event to showcase Australia's strengths, not its competitors'. APPEA chairman and Santos CEO Kevin Gallagher used part of his address to note the speed with which Russian had sanctioned new LNG projects in its far east, ones no one had actually heard of pre-FID. 

Russian ambassador to Australia Dr Alexey Pavlovsky's appearance was organised by non-political group Australia Russia Dialogue. 

Pavlovsky's speech, provided to Energy News by ARD, painted the country as a friend, rather than foe to Australia's LNG industry, noting the volume in global trade in LNG had increased by 3%, while Russia's share in this market had reached around 8%.  

This will increase given, as Gallagher noted: "Russia recently surprised the LNG industry by announcing construction of a 13 million tonnes per annum LNG plant on the Baltic coast with intended start-up as early as 2024. 

"That followed an announcement the week before, that start-up of the 20 million tonnes per annum Arctic LNG 2 expansion would be a year early, in 2025."

Analysts see Russian companies, with cheaper production costs and unburdened by ESG constraints that Australian players are facing, to be a major threat to Australia's LNG supremacy. It is targeting Asia, which takes the lion's share of Australian LNG supply, and has a helpful new trade route through a melting Arctic to speed the way. 

"Some would use terminology of competition here, but I'd rather see it as an opportunity to cooperate in a mutually beneficial manner to step up LNG supplies to Asia-Pacific thus improving energy security of the fast-growing region," the ambassador said. 

He said both Australia and Russia were experts in producing and shipping oil and gas, even suggesting the two countries could launch projects and lead scientific research, noting the country he represents had already been in talks with Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals Group regarding hydrogen.

"A prominent Westralian Andrew Forrest was one of the speakers at the recent Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum," he said.

"A number of Russian energy companies have put forward their own hydrogen initiatives in partnership with international business."

Australia imposed sanctions on Russia back in 2014 over the annexation of Crimea, following penalties already put in place by the EU and the US. 

Pavlovsky described the sanctions as "unhelpful", but added there were many views shared between the two governments including the importance of developing CCS technologies as well as its opposition to the EU's proposed carbon border tariffs, or Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. 

"Some believe, not without a reason, I think, might turn out to be a form of the good old protectionism in ecological disguise," he said.  

"While there are some necessary and unavoidable changes dictated by both technical progress and the climate agenda, Russia advocates a balanced approach.  

"The leaders of the G20 where both Australia and Russia are members have endorsed the concept of circular carbon economy, which promotes economic growth while managing emissions in all sectors."  

ARD told Energy News there is a growing interest from Russian companies to do business with Australian companies, as the West attempts to have a more pragmatic relationship with Russia, particularly in the context of an ascending China, something it has been halfheartedly attempting and failing for years. 

The World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report of last year ranks Russia at 28 out of 190. New Zealand is number one (though obviously not for offshore exploration companies). Russia is Australia's 46th largest trading partner; the balance of trade is in our favour. 

"Australian companies are active in the Russian resources sector, both as investors and as suppliers of advanced mining equipment. Australian companies are generally positive about their Russian operations and relationships," the Department of Fore

US president Joe Biden met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last week, describing the country as a "great power" and "worthy adversary".

Analysts told the Financial Times this was less about the US praising Russia, and more about stabilising the relationship and creating less of a reason for Russia to lean into its ties with China. 

"The more Biden treats Russia with respect as a great power, which is what Putin craves, the easier it will be for him to loosen Russia from China's embrace," former Trump Russia adviser Fiona Hill told The Financial Times. 

ARD told Energy News APPEA said it had strongly supported the initiative to invite Pavlovsky to the event - at a time when relations between China and Australia are at the frostiest in decades. 

Pavlovsky also spoke of pragmatism, highlighting how countries like China and India look to import more LNG from Russia's resource-rich Arctic region - saying Australia was missing out as a result of perceived rivalry and political obstacles.   

"We could have seen much more interest from Australian partners," he said. 

"I hope that the logic of mutual benefit will inevitably prevail over artificial political barriers and primitive propaganda," he said. ‘

DFAT puts it a little more bluntly: "Despite our differences, we work with Russia where it is in our interest to do so."

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

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