Until a few weeks ago the UN organised event was guaranteed to be a gathering of oil haters and scaremongers determined to kill the world's fossil fuel industries, with coal and oil the primary targets.

Even natural gas, an obvious halfway house on the road to a future paved with renewables, was in the cross hairs of the environmental movement.

No-one, not even The Slug, can argue with the nirvana of a world powered by wind, solar, hydrogen and other benign forms of energy which do not pollute the environment.

But getting to the promised land of abundant, non-polluting energy, will not occur by the time the usual suspects gather in Scotland to berate old energy and sing the praises of new energy.

Why oil has risen back to around US$79 a barrel, with a peak late last month above $80/bbl is blindingly obvious - demand is exceeding supply.

In what will one day form the basis of an academic study into a perfect economic storm the rapid improvement on the demand side of the equation will be all about the miracle of Covid-19 vaccines which have worked better than anyone expected, while supply is all about governments and environmentalists conspiring to crush investment in oil exploration and project development.

The net result of that pincer squeeze is an oil price which has doubled in 12-months, and which could rise a lot further because both forces, supply and demand, are still driving the market with $100/bbl clearly in view unless the wheels fall off the global economy.

Demand is the first side of the oil equation which needs a close look because when the Covid pandemic started to sweep across the world it was easy to predict a collapse in demand for energy, which is exactly what happened.

Lockdowns forced people indoors, trucks off the road and planes out of the air - culminating in that remarkable late April oil price last year of $20/bbl (and less on the futures market).

But what everyone missed is that demand destruction did not last as long as feared and from November 9 last year (the day Pfizer said it had a successful vaccine ready for release) demand was primed for recovery - which it has been doing all year without anyone paying much notice.

The world, fuelled with government stimulus spending, is guzzling oil at a near record rate as successive countries open their economies, people start to travel again and electricity demand rockets up, supercharging the price of LNG.

Supply, however, has not behaved like demand as it might have in earlier economic recoveries, largely a result of investors being driven out of the oil industry by militant environmentalists who have captured the key decision-making positions in most governments.

In the blink of an eye oil went from being an essential part of every modern economy to a commodity in exile despite the fact that it continues to provide the lion's share of energy to keep the wheels turning and the lights on.

Now comes the moment of truth and it's an event which ought to be high on the agenda of the COP26 climate change crusaders when they gather in a cold and wet Glasgow where central heating (gas powered, naturally) is essential given the average maximum in October and early November of 9 Celsius and an average minimum of 5.

What delegates should discuss, but will undoubtedly dodge, is that most of them have moved too soon in embracing a world of new energy which is still many years away, perhaps a decade or two.

So, before wind, solar, geothermal, hydrogen and other forms of renewable energy are able to replace the energy derived from fossil fuels there will be a rolling crisis of soaring prices, supply shortfalls and political upheaval.

Europe, often the birthplace of great movements (good and bad) is playing that role again with energy shortages shaking the foundations of government in Germany and Britain which have been leaders in the NOHP movement (no oil here please).

How that plays out is anybody's guess but The Slug has been around long enough to know that when an energy shortage, or high rates of inflation start to cause job losses and economic contraction, the mood of the electorate can turn nasty quite quickly.

China too is feeling the pain of moving too quickly away from fossil fuels with an order issued last week from Vice Premier Han Zheng for government owned energy companies to secure supplies of oil and gas "at all costs" before the next winter freeze.

Into this remarkably predictable mess of governments moving too quickly to discourage oil and gas exploration and production comes COP26 with its equally predictable communiques demanding deeper cuts in oil, gas and coal production "at all costs".

If it wasn't so serious it would be funny to hear China's top brass demanding more oil and gas "at all costs" while delegates to COP26 get ready to say the same thing about crushing oil and gas production.