AUSTRALIA

Woodside to face low oil reality: JPM

WOODSIDE is still chasing acquisition opportunities according to JP Morgan, which has maintained ...

This article is 9 years old. Images might not display.

"If we could pick one word to summarise Woodside's annual investor briefing day it would be resilience," JP Morgan said.

"Woodside chose to highlight its low cost operations, low cost of debt (just 2.6%), conservatively geared balance sheet and further operating and capital cost-out initiatives."

Like other brokers, JP Morgan believes there is more acquisition activity ahead for Woodside following its deals with Apache Corporation earlier this year.

"We get the sense that Woodside is still chasing acquisition opportunities; however, these are more likely to be focused at the asset level than the company level.

"We think Woodside is unlikely to make an acquisition purely as a commodity price play. The company seems to be still focused on acquiring assets where it can add value through its technical or commercial capabilities, independent of any potential mismatch of asset value to forward commodity price outlook."

In making its forecasts for Woodside, which included a 12-month target price of $34.44 when Woodside shares were $34.87 each, JP Morgan stuck to valuing the company's existing operations and ruled out the LNG growth projects except for Wheatstone (Woodside 13%).

"Our $34/shr discounted cash flow valuation and price target excludes any value for Browse, Sunrise, Pluto expansions or Kitimat," the investment bank said.

"Other factors to consider include the remaining overhang of Royal Dutch Shell's 13% shareholding in Woodside and the sharp contraction in forecast dividend payments over calendar year 2015 and beyond, driven by the fall in oil price and constant payout ratio."

The rating also took into account Woodside's strong relative share price performance versus local and global peers.

"On an absolute basis, we think Woodside has limited downside, however, we believe the magnitude of its outperformance is due to revert as the reality of a lower oil price world and its impacts on dividends plays out," JP Morgan said.

"Stock-specific outperformance is contingent upon Browse progress, exploration success and Kitimat LNG progress, all of which are long-dated."

JP Morgan downgraded Woodside from neutral to underweight four months ago.

TOPICS:

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

editions

Future of Energy Report: Nuclear Power in Australia 2024

Energy News Bulletin’s new report examines what the energy and resources industry thinks of the idea of a nuclear-powered Australia.

editions

ENB CCS Report 2024

ENB’s CCS Report 2024 finds that CCS could be the much-needed magic bullet for Australia’s decarbonisation drive

editions

ENB Cost Report 2023

ENB’s latest Cost Report findings provide optimism as investments in oil and gas, as well as new energy rise.

editions

ENB Future of Energy Report 2023

ENB’s inaugural Future of Energy Report details the industry outlook on the medium-to-long-term future for the sector in the Asia Pacific region.