In the wake of the devastating Independent Expert's report on remaining Maui reserves, which concluded there were only about 370 Petajoules remaining in the field at the current contract price, Methanex has been forced to shut one of two methanol trains at its Motunui complex and shut the nearby Waitara Valley plant.

It may only produce about 800,000 tonnes of methanol this year, less than 40% of the plants' 2.3 million tonne capacity, and, although there will be no redundancies this year, Methanex 200 staff are being encouraged to use all their leave entitlements. As well, Methanex staff are being kept busy with a myriad of non-essential tasks around the sites, such as the dismantling of the disused synthetic petrol part of the Motunui complex.

The future looks even worse, with perhaps only non-Maui gas available from 2004, which at most could keep the 520,000-tonne capacity valley complex operating for several years.

Once the twin Motunui trains are mothballed, it is very doubtful they will ever be restarted, though company Asia-Pacific vice-president Bruce Aitken has told EnergyReview.Net there is a small chance they could be disassembled and shipped to Western Australia if Methanex ever manages to finalise a project at the Burrup Peninsula or elsewhere.

Aitken has also said Methanex wants to remain in New Zealand if economically feasible, though this will require new medium to long-term gas supply contracts to be signed within the next year or so.

Methanex NZ staff anticipated the eventual decline of Maui, the corporation's main feedstock gas, as early as 1995 and tried to convince the government of the need for preferential treatment of gas compared to oil. It also launched a campaign to bring more explorers to New Zealand and liaised with some major existing explorationists and fellow gas users in the hope of attracting more exploration targeting gas.

However, such initiatives failed, largely because of the prevalent low gas prices and small New Zealand market. In those days striking gas was almost worse than a dry hole, so low were the incentives to develop new gas discoveries, particularly offshore.

Now all that has changed, with energy-hungry New Zealanders propelling power demand and prices skyward. The gas market is a lot tighter, with all major users, including Methanex, accepting the inevitably of gas price increases.

Some commentators see the Methanex presence as an aberration and, once gone, the markedly smaller New Zealand energy industry will be more easily managed. Most; though, agree that Methanex fulfills a useful role, providing a large base load (up to 90PJ a year) for gas and contributing over $NZ500 million in foreign exchange earnings and $NZ40 million directly into the Taranaki economy each year.

Without Methanex, future small-medium gas finds, onshore or near-shore, should still be developed even if prices appear to be heading towards the Royal Dutch Shell "norm" of $US3 per Gigajoule. However, large deepwater gas finds may not prove economic, given the even smaller market (about 160PJ a year) without Methanex and the huge capital costs involved. As well, Australia will always be able to export gas, as LNG, more cheaply than New Zealand to major Asian markets.

However, commentators say there are still several options open the government. One would be to forego the Energy Resources Levy collected from Maui and other "older" fields and use that money directly to spur further exploration. A second would be to change the royalty regime, as suggested years ago by Methanex, and offer lower rates, even tax holidays, for gas exploration and development.

A third option could involve the termination or renegotiation of the present Maui contract to offer Maui partners Shell Todd and OMV a more realistic environment, including real price increases for gas, and an incentive to develop those pools and plays already identified within or adjoining the Maui mining licence, but presently considered uneconomic to explore.

However, time is fast running out to implement any of these measures as New Zealand contemplates not only its "post Maui" but also a "post Methanex" age.