"Pick a number, any number, between 43% and 75%..."

It might sound like a line from a bad magician, but this is the predicament faced by Australia's climate change and energy minister Chris Bowen as he considers how far up the emissions reduction mast to nail his colours.

As has been widely reported, within the next three weeks Bowen will tell Australia – and indeed the world – the country's new emissions reductions targets for 2035.

With a legislated net zero by 2050 and a 43% reduction by 2030 target already in place, the advice has been coming in thick and fast from industrialists, lobby groups and eNGOs about where the red line must fall.

Add into the mix the notion of setting a range rather than a single figure and the issue of whether the new target will be enshrined in law through newly introduced legislation, and it's a big decision for the member for McMahon.

In fact, as he said in an interview on Thursday, September is an extraordinarily busy month for him with the announcement of the new emissions cut target, the release of

He'll also be releasing the government's Net Zero Plan - the first comprehensive assessment of a pathway to net zero since the Morrison government released a plan when it first made the 2050 commitment.

Likewise, as soon as next week the government will also be releasing its first national climate risk assessment which Bowen has said will make for "compelling" reading.

But on the issue of the emissions reductions, as ENB has been covering over the last few weeks, Bowen has had no shortage of advice on his pending decision – a decision which will actually be informed most the advice of Matt Kean and his colleagues at the Climate Change Authority when they send their report up to the minister's office.

More than 350 companies—including Fortescue, Atlassian, Canva, IKEA, and Unilever—have backed Business for 75's call for the government to adopt a 75% cut, backed by economic modelling from Deloitte Access Economics suggests that Australia would be financially better off with a stronger 2035 climate target.

Similarly, lawyers acting for the Parents for Climate campaign group have told Bowen that an emissions reduction target of net zero by 2035 to align with 1.5°C is now required to comply with Australian law. 

On the flip side Frank Jotzo, a key Labor climate adviser, has warned the government against being overly ambitious with its 2035 emissions target, saying that going above 60% will require a major expansion of emissions reductions in the transport, industrial and agricultural sectors.

And then today comes a report from the Business Council of Australia which claims that a that an emissions target of 70%+ would risk a loss of up to $530bn in capital investment.

As Bowen must surely be aware, he'll not be able to settle on a figure which makes everyone happy and he's either going to be accused of cow-towing to the business or green lobby when he makes his announcement.

Fancy walking a mile in his brogues this month? No thank you.

Yours, 

Russell Yeo