Voelte’s big bet is on front-end engineering and design for the Pluto liquefied natural gas project, something he sees as Woodside’s key statement for the future – and one that The Slug sees as a “break-free from Shell project”.

If Pluto proceeds as Voelte plans, it will give Woodside significantly increased presence in the LNG world, and show that it is no longer driven by the dictates of its biggest shareholder and would-be owner Shell.

Voelte has decided there are some extremely interesting hurdles to clear, including the unfinished debate over whether a proportion of the gas in the Pluto field should be reserved for WA consumers.

As far as The Slug can see, Pluto is currently what might be called a marginal LNG proposition. It is not a big gas field by North West Shelf standards, containing an estimated 3.6 trillion cubic feet of gas, and a minnow alongside the monster fields that make up Chevron’s Greater Gorgon project and their estimated 40Tcf.

Voelte has effectively acknowledged this by referring to Pluto as a “gas gatherer” in the Carnarvon Basin.

One interpretation of that description is that Pluto is a template for what might happen elsewhere in Australia’s northern waters.

Another interpretation is that Pluto lacks the reserves for the long-term production of 5-6 million tonnes of LNG a year. To do that, a minimum requirement for a stand-alone field is said to be around 5Tcf.

So far, this apparent shortfall in gas reserves has led to comments about Woodside acting rashly, or being too keen to break the Shell shackles.

There is, however, another aspect to Woodside’s rush to be seen as an independent LNG producer, and first exporter of gas to Voelte’s home country, the US.

The unspoken feature is Voelte’s desire to bring to a head his dispute with Carpenter over the gas reservation scheme, and the best way to do that is to say: ‘Here’s my cash, here’s my project – do you really want to stop it, Alan?’

Pluto, for all the hype being injected by Woodside, would probably not tolerate a 20% cut in reserves, if that’s to be the new law in WA. Take 20% off an already marginal 3.6Tcf and you end up with less than 3Tcf – not enough to convince customers of your long-term ability to meet their requirements.

For Voelte, the debate over gas reservation has gone far enough. He has plonked his $192 million on the table and said full-steam ahead, let’s be an independent LNG producer.

For Carpenter, it’s now a case of pushing through a law enforcing his desired 20% gas reserve, or backing off.

Complicating the issue is the lack of a state agreement covering Pluto. Carpenter apparently did not think this necessary, and Woodside was happy to treat Pluto as just another development.

This lack of legal certainty is one of the reasons Pluto and the gas reserves question has reached an impasse, and why the next move is Carpenter’s.

Either the Premier caves in, or he can make life difficult for Voelte on questions of land usage and permits to proceed with development.

Voelte’s advisers obviously think Carpenter is unlikely to be obstinate to the point of stopping Pluto.

The Slug is not so sure. Pluto is not the only LNG act in town. Gorgon is the big one, and it has the reserves to play the 20% game. Knock that proportion off Gorgon and you still have 32Tcf – or 10 times the Pluto position.

Over to you, Alan. Will you call Don’s $192 million bet, or fold?

Note: The views of Slugcatcher are not those of APPEA.