PREMIUM FEATURES

What is the Shell game?

AT FIRST glance, it seems easy to see why Chevron grabbed the opportunity to sell out of the Woodside-operated Browse project. But it is not quite as easy to explain Shell's decision to increase its exposure. <b>By Paul Garvey in Hong Kong</b>

What is the Shell game?

For those who missed it, Chevron has sold its 16.7% share in Browse to Shell in exchange for $US450 million and Shell's 33.3% interest in the Chevron-controlled Clio and Acme gas discoveries.

From Chevron's perspective, the deal extricates the company from what - at least from the outside - looks like two potentially messy situations.

Firstly, the social and environmental tension at James Price Point - the Kimberley site where operator Woodside has proposed to build Browse's LNG plant - continues to fester.

Indigenous groups still disagree over the plans while environmental movements are increasingly grabbing James Price Point as their cause of the day.

Secondly, plenty of outsiders are wondering how the economics of James Price Point will stack up against alternative development options, in particular the more long-dated option of using the gas to backfill into the existing North West Shelf project.

The joint venture partners have themselves previously been divided over the plans, and there will ultimately be an exhaustive debate over the most suitable option for the project's development.

Now, after its exit, Chevron can focus on its existing huge LNG developments, the under-construction duo of Gorgon and Wheatstone, well away from the ongoing tensions surrounding Browse.

On top of that, it gets a bigger slice of two undeveloped finds (Clio and Acme) that will keep Wheatstone well supplied for years, and a cheque for $US450 million to help it on its way.

Of course, we may be in a situation in 20 years where Browse is pumping out gallons of cash and Chevron's decision to tap out now looks silly.

However, as it stands today, there's much less risk associated with Gorgon and Wheatstone than there is at Browse.

Whatever happens there, Chevron will already be operating two big LNG projects in WA as well as holding a stake in the North West Shelf, and will have more than enough exposure to the region on its plate.

It also is possible to see a situation where Chevron has its cake and eats it too when it comes to Browse.

There is still a chance the Browse gas could eventually get piped down to the North West Shelf, where it would shore up the future of Chevron's existing investment there and deliver the company an additional benefit.

Analysts here in Hong Kong and elsewhere in Asia told Energy News they were surprised by the move, particularly what it said about Shell's motivation.

Woodside is probably entitled to be a bit confused about where it stands in all this too, given Shell has also historically been somewhat cool on the idea of James Price Point.

Given Shell had previously signalled it was keen to quit its exposure to Woodside, having sold down some of its shareholding in the company in late 2010, the decision to grab a bigger bite of Browse suggests the company may have had a change of heart.

Shell's original decision to begin a sell-down of its Woodside stake was predicated on a desire to pursue its own investments in Australia, rather than use Woodside as its Australian vehicle.

That meant concentrating on the likes of its Prelude and Arrow Energy LNG projects, where it is operator, as well as its direct stakes in Gorgon, Wheatstone and the North West Shelf.

After Shell's initial sell-down, it looked like the pair were heading for an amicable separation.

Has Shell taken a different view about Woodside since the latter came under the new leadership of Peter Coleman?

Is Shell's remaining stake in Woodside no longer the massive overhang the market has long thought it was?

Given no one put a gun to Shell's head to do the deal, does Shell know something about Browse - or have an idea for Browse - that the rest of us (Chevron included) are not aware of?

Maybe that is a plan to use Shell's floating LNG technology at Browse (although it would seem too large for such a process).

Maybe Shell will push for the gas to be piped to Woodside's hungry Pluto LNG plant, where Shell's equity stake in Woodside would provide a benefit.

If Shell has had a change of heart on Woodside and Browse, it probably realises that its stake in the project is worth a lot more when Chevron - which has long been a potential obstacle to the James Price Point option - is not in it.

If nothing else, the deal has added another layer of intrigue to a project that is already in a fascinating situation.

TOPICS:

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

A growing series of reports, each focused on a key discussion point for the energy sector, brought to you by the Energy News Bulletin Intelligence team.

editions

ENB CCS Report 2024

ENB’s CCS Report 2024 finds that CCS could be the much-needed magic bullet for Australia’s decarbonisation drive

editions

ENB Cost Report 2023

ENB’s latest Cost Report findings provide optimism as investments in oil and gas, as well as new energy rise.

editions

ENB Future of Energy Report 2023

ENB’s inaugural Future of Energy Report details the industry outlook on the medium-to-long-term future for the sector in the Asia Pacific region.

editions

ENB Cost Report 2021

This industry-wide report aims to understand current cost levels across the energy industry